7.500
%
Neutral
76
mm boe
22
%
Cuba faces its deepest economic crisis in decades, with nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages and the loss of Venezuelan oil supply. US sanctions remain comprehensive, and access to technology and finance for any development is negligible. Outlook amended from Neutral because the economic collapse and loss of Venezuelan support have sharply raised risk. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia raised from 3.75% to 7.5%.
October 8, 2026
Americas - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Caribbean, island between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean, 150 km south of Key West, Florida.
PSC/PSA
Cuba offers acreage for upstream operations through production-sharing agreements (PSAs). A new deepwater PSA model has been announced as part of Cuba's first Offshore Licensing round. The new PSA model does not include royalties, surface fees, or production bonuses, except for training fees. Cuba's fiscal changes since 2014 have made the country increasingly attractive and favourable, especially for deep-water blocks.
Cuba is in its worst economic crisis in decades, with repeated nationwide blackouts and grid collapses, shortages, high inflation and mass emigration. Venezuelan oil supplies have dwindled. The US embargo, Cuba's return to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list in 2025 and Title III litigation create severe legal exposure for foreign investors, and US and UK guidance cite state control, payment arrears and arbitrary regulation. Production is limited to onshore and near-shore heavy oil along the north coast, operated by CUPET with Sherritt.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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