Commodity Update (January, 2022)

It says something about energy planning, when demand patterns are within their seasonal norms, and prices surge.

If ever anybody within any doubt about the use of energy resources as a political tool, the last six months should serve as a wake-up call, as there has been relentless leverage applied via the variation of supplies.

In this respect, the LNG carriers have become the modern-day Liberty ships, bringing much-needed supplies to Europe, albeit not solely from the United States.

Whilst this highlights the gross dereliction of duty by European governmental energy strategists, that it has happened now when we have the ability to be able to rectify it in relatively short order is something that everybody needs to be cognisant of.

The more politicians argue about climate change being the root cause, the weaker they make themselves sound. Additionally, it also serves to highlight the extent their dissociation yes from the reality of the various energy sources, renewables’ intermittency, the need for the transition period to be a transition and not a step change, and the role that hydrocarbons play in the energy mix.

The failure to make these points when deciding energy policy has been the real failure, which has been exacerbated by climate change zealots, who similarly refuse to accept any other narrative, other than their own.

January's Forward Probability Curves can be accessed via Oil & Gas Advisors here.