Orange River Coastal

Commentary

Shell's rumoured new discovery adds significant impetus for the basin, but headwinds still remain. The outlook, however, has been raised to Neutral, reflecting the fact that the latest discovery is now the second.

Updated

March 6, 2023

Location

Description

The ORCB is a rifted-volcanic passive margin and was created with breakup of the South American and African continental plates during Late Jurassic/Early Cretaceous, followed by rifting and drifting which led to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. Regional seismic profiles and drilled well data indicate different play types between outboard and inboard proven plays.

Summary

The OCB's technical successes have confirmed its potential, but the Jonker-1x well could mark a sea-change in the Basin's prospects. Nevertheless, each successive well provides valuable data points which if shared, could improve the wider basin prospectivity. However, wider data sharing has only occurred only at a change of ownership, which as experience has shown, is often only be after a significant period has passed, so it would accelerate things yet further if all operators shared data, but this needs to be driven by the host governments.