7.500
%
Negative
89
mm boe
100
%
The government continues to create headwinds for investment in natural resources, and the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act has not prevented TotalEnergies' exit from its offshore discoveries. Strained relations with the US, BEE requirements and a looming gas shortfall add to the risks, although improvements in power and logistics are welcome. Outlook maintained because upstream policy continues to deter investment. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia lowered from 10.25% to 7.5%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - South
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Africa, at the southern tip of the continent of Africa.
Concession
Concession-based fiscal regime. The state has the option to participate in upstream developments, through PetroSA, with an interest of up to 10%. There is also a maximum 10% farm-in provision for Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) companies at pre-defined commercial terms.
The ANC-led government of national unity has proved stable, and improvements in power and logistics have largely ended load-shedding. However, relations with the US are strained, with 30% tariffs, the loss of AGOA and the US boycott of the November 2025 G20 summit in Johannesburg. US and UK guidance cite deep capital markets and strong courts, but note BEE requirements, crime and policy uncertainty. TotalEnergies has exited the offshore Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries, Sasol dominates synthetic fuels, and a gas shortfall looms as imports from Mozambique's Pande–Temane fields decline.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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