6.250
%
Uncertain
110
mm boe
0
%
Debt issues have continued to hamper investment, with a risk that the government will use tax changes to raise revenue. TotalEnergies' decision to lift force majeure on Mozambique LNG and Eni's FID on Coral Norte are positives, but the insurgency in Cabo Delgado and post-election unrest persist. Outlook maintained because project restarts are offset by continued insecurity. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 5% to 6.25%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - South
mm bbl
bcf
Southeastern Africa, bordering the Mozambique Channel, between South Africa and Tanzania.
PSC/PSA
Relatively straight-forward Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") fiscal regime, with royalty (known as Petroleum Production Tax, or PPT) rates fixed, cost recovery negotiable and production sharing splits based on sliding scale mechanisms with project profitability (the R-Factor). The level of state participation, through the national oil company, ENH, is negotiated and on an ad hoc basis.
President Daniel Chapo took office after the disputed October 2024 election, which triggered deadly protests, and the insurgency in Cabo Delgado persists. US and UK guidance cite security, corruption, legacy 'hidden debts' and capacity constraints. The EIA highlights the Rovuma basin's huge gas resources. Eni's Coral South floating LNG plant is producing, Eni took the final investment decision on Coral Norte in 2025, TotalEnergies has moved to lift force majeure on Mozambique LNG, and ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG is moving towards a final investment decision.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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