3.750
%
Positive
18
mm boe
0
%
The Bahamas remains an unproven frontier province. Following the dry Perseverance-1 well in 2021 and the government's opposition to offshore drilling, there is little near-term prospect of renewed exploration. Outlook amended from Positive because the dry well and government hostility to drilling have removed the near-term upside. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 3.75%.
October 7, 2026
Caribbean
mm bbl
bcf
Caribbean, a chain of islands in the North Atlantic Ocean, southeast of Florida and northeast of Cuba.
Concession
While the Bahamas has no track record in O&G tax management, we believe that the government will leverage its experience in general taxation, which should be a positive.
The Bahamas is a stable Commonwealth democracy with an economy dominated by tourism and financial services. US and UK guidance cite clear investment rules, but note that some sectors are reserved for Bahamians, approval processes are slow, and the country is highly vulnerable to hurricanes and exposed to scrutiny of its financial services regulation. The only offshore exploration well to date (Perseverance-1, 2021) was dry, and the government has signalled that it does not favour further licensing. The country is wholly dependent on imported fuels.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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