3.750
%
Negative
116
mm boe
100
%
Chad remains volatile, with Mahamat Déby's rule entrenched after the 2024 election and conflict in neighbouring Sudan spilling over. The 2023 nationalisation of ExxonMobil's former assets, which Savannah had agreed to buy, and the ensuing arbitration underline expropriation risk. Outlook maintained because expropriation and political risk remain high. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia raised from 3.75% to 6.25%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Central Africa, south of Libya.
PSC/PSA
Under this regime, the contractor undertakes petroleum activities on behalf of the State but at the contractor’s sole and full risk. The contractor is not entitled to be granted a mining title. Exploration operations are undertaken following exclusive exploration authorisation granted to the contractor for a maximum period of five years, renewable once for three years. The exclusive exploration authorization provides exclusive rights to undertake exploration activities within the contractual zone. In the case of a commercial discovery, an exclusive exploitation authorization for a maximum period of 25 years that is renewable once for 10 years.
Mahamat Idriss Déby consolidated power through a 2024 election after a transitional military government, and opposition leader Succès Masra was jailed in 2025. The Sudan war has driven a massive refugee influx into the east. US and UK guidance cite expropriation risk, notably the 2023 nationalisation of ExxonMobil's former assets sold to Savannah Energy, which remains in arbitration, as well as corruption and an unpredictable tax environment. The FCDO advises against travel to large parts of the country. Oil from the Doba basin is exported via the Chad–Cameroon pipeline, and CNPC operates the Djermaya refinery near N'Djamena.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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