7.500
%
Negative
125
mm boe
0
%
Political instability continues to provide significant headwinds, with the junta's fuel blockade crisis, its seizure of Barrick's assets and its exit from ECOWAS underlining expropriation and security risk. Outlook maintained because the junta's actions continue to worsen risk. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 7.5%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Interior Western Africa, southwest of Algeria, north of Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso, west of Niger.
PSC/PSA
Relatively simple Production Sharing Contract ("PSC")-based fiscal regime, based on a model contract introduced in 2004. Signature bonuses are payable but are typically small; there is no royalty. Cost recovery is negotiable, whilst production splits vary on a sliding scale with production rates. The contractor is also liable for income tax.
General Assimi Goïta's junta granted itself a renewable five-year term in 2025 and dissolved political parties. Mali has left ECOWAS for the Alliance of Sahel States, and JNIM's fuel blockade on Bamako since September 2025 has paralysed the economy. The FCDO advises against all travel, and the gold-sector dispute with Barrick, which saw its Loulo-Gounkoto mine seized before a settlement in late 2025, highlights severe expropriation risk. Mali has no oil production and depends on fuel imported overland.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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