5.000
%
Neutral
25
mm boe
67
%
Recent updates from the US State Department and the FCDO suggest that the general investment climate is improving. However, the government's multibillion-dollar claims against the Kashagan and Karachaganak consortia, along with repeated disruption of CPC exports by Ukrainian drone strikes, have raised risks for the oil & gas sector. Outlook amended from Neutral because state claims against the major consortia have increased contractual risk. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 3.125% to 5%.
October 8, 2026
Caspian
mm bbl
bcf
Central Asia, northwest of China; a small portion west of the Ural (Zhayyq) River in easternmost Europe.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
Most contracts with foreign investors in Kazakhstan are currently governed by Concession (royalty/tax) terms. Vehicles for Concession operations include Kazakh joint stock companies (JSC), limited liability companies and general or limited partnerships. The latest model Concession terms took effect in January 2009. Typically the State will have a minimum of 50% interest in offshore contracts; the state interest varies for onshore projects, and ranges from zero to 100%.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's government is stable but centralised. Kazakhstan balances relations with Russia, China and the West, and has chosen Rosatom to build its first nuclear plant. US and UK guidance cite corruption, opaque regulation and growing state pressure on foreign oil majors, including multibillion-dollar claims against the Kashagan and Karachaganak consortia. The EIA notes record output following completion of Chevron's Tengiz expansion in 2025. However, exports via the CPC pipeline through Russia are vulnerable to disruption, including drone strikes, and output above Kazakhstan's OPEC+ quota strains relations within the group.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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