6.250
%
Negative
91
mm boe
1
%
Operating in Turkmenistan remains difficult, owing both to the fiscal terms and to geopolitical uncertainty. Currency controls, corruption and the lack of legal recourse persist. Outlook maintained because there has been no improvement. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 6.25%.
October 7, 2026
Caspian
mm bbl
bcf
Central Asia, bordering the Caspian Sea, between Iran and Kazakhstan.
PSC/PSA
Upstream operations involving foreign investors are governed by Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") terms. The State normally takes a carried stake in PSC; Turkmengaz currently owns 100% of all onshore gas projects, with IOCs contributing on a service basis only. PSC terms vary due to the ad hoc nature of negotiations and negotiability of the terms (e.g., bonuses, profit splits, etc.). Government share reflects the level of expenditure and risk involved. Royalty varies with production rates, whilst profit oil splits vary on a sliding scale based on the R-Factor.
Turkmenistan is one of the world's most closed authoritarian states, ruled by President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and his father. US and UK guidance cite severe currency controls, corruption and a lack of legal recourse. The EIA notes that Turkmenistan holds the world's fourth-largest gas reserves (Galkynysh), mainly exported to China. Progress on the TAPI pipeline is slow, and methane emissions from the sector are among the highest in the world.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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