10.000
%
Uncertain
126
mm boe
3
%
Recent geopolitical tensions have made investment in Myanmar untenable, with civil war, sanctions and the exit of TotalEnergies and Chevron. The military's discredited election has not changed this. Outlook amended from Uncertain because civil war and sanctions leave no viable route for investment. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia raised from 3.75% to 10%.
October 8, 2026
Asia - South East
mm bbl
bcf
Southeastern Asia, bordering the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, between Bangladesh and Thailand.
PSC/PSA
Companies are required to sign production sharing contracts (PSCs) with Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), which is a 100% state-owned enterprise under the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MOEE), in order to undertake petroleum exploration and production activities in Myanmar. As the investment in the oil and gas business is capital-intensive, several foreign oil and gas companies sometimes jointly invest in the PSC, and the majority stakeholder acts as the “operator.”
Myanmar's military regime held a widely discredited election in late 2025 and early 2026 amid a civil war in which it has lost large areas to resistance forces; the March 2025 earthquake compounded the humanitarian crisis. The FCDO advises against travel to much of the country, and US, UK and EU sanctions and severe reputational risk deter Western investment. The EIA notes that offshore gas (Yadana, Shwe, Zawtika), exported to Thailand and China, is declining after TotalEnergies and Chevron exited.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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