4.500
%
Neutral
12
mm boe
18
%
The rejection of the Ardern-era closed approach is a positive step, and the reversal of the offshore exploration ban in 2025 should support investment as Taranaki gas supply declines. This needs to be reflected in actual licensing activity before we move further, particularly with an election due in late 2026. Outlook maintained because the reversal of the ban has yet to translate into new investment. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 4.5%.
October 7, 2026
Asia - Pacific
mm bbl
bcf
Oceania, islands in the South Pacific Ocean, southeast of Australia.
Concession
Simple Concession fiscal regime where the contractor pays either a fixed Ad Valorem Royalty (AVR) of net sales revenues or a given % of Accounting Profit Royalty (APR), whichever is higher in any given year, plus corporate income tax.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's coalition faces an election in late 2026. US and UK guidance describe a very low-risk, transparent market, while noting tighter overseas-investment screening of land. The government reversed the ban on new offshore exploration in 2025 as Taranaki gas output declines sharply, causing supply shortfalls, and is assessing LNG imports. Electricity is mostly renewable (hydro and geothermal), but dry years strain supply.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
© 2024 Oil & Gas Advisors Limited
Website by Rugby Web Design
