3.750
%
Uncertain
97
mm boe
12
%
Investment in PNG has stalled, as uncertainty over access to LNG export capacity and repeated delays to the Papua LNG FID have hampered the commercial potential of the asset base. Land tenure, security and FX shortages remain risks. Outlook maintained because the Papua LNG FID remains outstanding. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 2.5% to 3.75%.
October 8, 2026
Asia - Pacific
mm bbl
bcf
Oceania, group of islands including the eastern half of the island of New Guinea between the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean, east of Indonesia.
Concession
The fiscal regime that applies in Papua New Guinea (PNG) to taxation of income derived by petroleum and gas companies consists of a combination of corporate income tax (CIT), royalties and development levies, additional profits tax (APT) and infrastructure tax credits.
Prime Minister James Marape survived repeated no-confidence votes, but faces tribal violence, the 2024 Port Moresby riots and an unresolved independence claim from Bougainville. US and UK guidance cite corruption, land tenure, security and FX shortages. The EIA notes that ExxonMobil's PNG LNG is the core of the economy. TotalEnergies' Papua LNG project has repeatedly delayed its final investment decision, while the Porgera gold mine has reopened.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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