3.750
%
Uncertain
77
mm boe
4
%
Access to the Bangladeshi upstream is starting to open up, with Petrobangla's offshore bid round and a revised model PSC, but participant size remains an issue for regulators. The licensing regime is clear on paper but opaque in practice, and the post-2024 political transition adds uncertainty. Outlook maintained because the political transition and opaque licensing leave the direction unclear. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 2.5% to 3.75%.
October 8, 2026
Asia - South West
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Asia, bordering the Bay of Bengal, between Burma and India.
PSC/PSA
Almost all terms are either biddable or negotiable. Cost recovery ceilings are biddable, but a mechanism exists to ensure all costs are recovered within a five-year period. Profit oil splits are biddable and are based on production rates. There is also a domestic supply obligation of up to 80% of the contractor's share of profit oil at a discount of 15% to the normal price (this applies to oil only). The rate of corporate income tax is negotiable, whilst a range of bonuses, rentals and fees are also payable.
Sheikh Hasina's government was toppled by a mass uprising in August 2024, and an interim administration under Muhammad Yunus pursued reforms and set elections for early 2026. Political volatility therefore remains elevated. US and UK guidance point to a large, fast-growing market, but highlight corruption, bureaucracy, weak contract enforcement, payment arrears to foreign energy and power companies, and foreign-exchange shortages. The EIA notes declining domestic gas production (Chevron's Bibiyana is the largest field), rising dependence on imported LNG and limited exploration interest; Petrobangla's 2024 offshore bid round attracted no bids.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
© 2024 Oil & Gas Advisors Limited
Website by Rugby Web Design
