5.000
%
Uncertain
108
mm boe
13
%
Pakistan was historically popular with independents, but political uncertainty, circular debt and payment arrears have created significant headwinds. Brief conflicts with India and Afghanistan in 2025 add to the risks, although the IMF programme provides some stability. Outlook maintained because IMF support is offset by political and security risks. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 3.75% to 5%.
October 8, 2026
Asia - South West
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea, between India on the east and Iran and Afghanistan on the west and China in the north.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
Pakistan is divided into three onshore regions (Zone I-III) and offshore (Zone O), for licensing and fiscal purposes. The fiscal system for onshore licences is based on the concession model, while offshore licences are governed by production sharing contract ("PSC") terms. All terms were refreshed in the 2012 Petroleum Policy. A major component of the fiscal system is the windfall levy which applies to both oil and gas production when prices exceed certain levels. For oil, the marginal rate is 100% (above US$100/bbl).
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government is backed by the military, whose chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, gained expanded powers under the 27th constitutional amendment in 2025. Brief armed conflicts with India in May 2025 and with Afghanistan in October 2025 underline security risk. US and UK guidance cite the US$7 billion IMF programme, corruption, power-sector circular debt and payment arrears. The EIA notes declining domestic gas and dependence on imported oil and LNG; Pakistan has deferred contracted Qatari LNG cargoes amid weak demand.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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