6.250
%
Negative
63
mm boe
36
%
India has faced significant headwinds due to its regulated pricing regime and slow regulator. However, the 2025 amendment to the Oilfields Act, which offers greater stability and separates petroleum leases from mining law, together with larger OALP rounds and improved gas pricing, shows a genuine shift in approach. Outlook amended from Negative because legislative reform and improved pricing have addressed key investor concerns. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 6.25%.
October 7, 2026
Asia - South West
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, between Myanmar and Pakistan.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
Several regimes coexist. Pre-1999 nomination fields held by ONGC and Oil India pay royalty and cess; NELP-era blocks (1999–2010) are PSCs with cost recovery and a profit split linked to investment multiple; and since 2016 the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP) awards revenue-sharing contracts through Open Acreage Licensing rounds, with no cost recovery, a biddable revenue share, concessional royalty rates and marketing and pricing freedom. Corporate income tax applies throughout, and the 2025 amendment to the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Act introduced a single petroleum lease and stability provisions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads a third-term BJP-led coalition. The UK–India FTA was signed in 2025, but steep US tariffs linked to India's purchases of Russian oil strained ties pending a trade deal. US and UK guidance highlight a vast, fast-growing market, but cite regulatory complexity, retrospective tax disputes, state-level variation and slow courts. The EIA notes that India imports over 85% of its crude. Domestic output, led by ONGC, is stagnant despite OALP licensing rounds; the government is expanding refining, LNG import capacity and city gas.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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