10.000
%
Neutral
129
mm boe
97
%
The conflict in the east has eroded investability, with M23 seizing Goma and Bukavu in early 2025. US- and Qatar-brokered peace agreements offer some hope, but implementation is fragile. The 2022 licensing round, including blocks overlapping protected areas, has stalled, and significant progress is needed before our risk premia is reduced. Outlook amended from Neutral because renewed conflict and stalled licensing leave the direction finely balanced. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 7.5% to 10%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - West
mm bbl
bcf
Central Africa, northeast of Angola.
PSC/PSA
Usually, under the terms of a PSC and to the extent that oil is discovered by a company undertaking exploration and development activities in the DRC, the exploitation is made in the name of the DRC Government. If oil is not discovered, all the costs of exploration are assumed by the company.
President Félix Tshisekedi faces an existential security crisis in the east, where Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized Goma and Bukavu in early 2025. US-brokered (Washington) and Qatari-mediated (Doha) peace frameworks have yet to deliver durable de-escalation. The FCDO advises against travel to the eastern provinces. US and UK guidance cite pervasive corruption, arbitrary taxation and weak courts, alongside strategic critical-minerals opportunities. Oil production is limited to small coastal output by Perenco, and the controversial auction of blocks overlapping the Virunga and Cuvette Centrale peatlands has attracted little credible interest.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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