7.500
%
Uncertain
109
mm boe
0
%
The November 2025 coup has reinforced long-standing concerns over governance, and the military's suspension of the electoral process leaves the country in limbo. Offshore exploration interest has been limited and is likely to remain on hold. Outlook amended from Uncertain because the coup has clearly worsened political risk. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 7.5%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - West
mm bbl
bcf
Western Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, between Guinea and Senegal.
PSC/PSA
Production Sharing Contract ("PSC")-based fiscal regime, where royalty rates and profit oil splits vary with production rates, with some incentives for deep-water operations. Cost recovery is negotiable. The contractor is liable for income tax, and there is an additional profits tax (the Supplementary Tax) which is based upon project profitability.
The military seized power in November 2025, ousting President Umaro Sissoco Embaló in the aftermath of a disputed election, and continuing Guinea-Bissau's history of coups and narcotics-linked instability. US and UK guidance cite weak institutions, corruption and a small market. There is no oil production; offshore blocks, including the joint zone with Senegal, are prospective but underexplored.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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