2.500
%
Neutral
52
mm boe
100
%
Guatemala under President Bernardo Arévalo faces resistance from entrenched interests in the judiciary and prosecution service. Perenco's small onshore output continues, but contract renewals have been contentious. Outlook maintained because institutional conflict continues without material change. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 2.5%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Central America, bordering the North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Honduras (Caribbean Sea), between El Salvador and Mexico.
PSC/PSA
Production sharing regime. Under the Hydrocarbons Law (Decree 109-83) the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) awards petroleum operations contracts on production sharing terms: the contractor pays a royalty (a 20% base rate adjusted for crude quality), recovers costs from production and shares the remaining profit oil with the State, alongside income tax. The largest contract, Perenco's 2-85 covering the Xan field in the Laguna del Tigre National Park (about 80% of national output), expired on 12 August 2025 and was not renewed, so the State took over the assets and is paying for decommissioning. Only a few smaller exploitation contracts remain, and the law makes no provision for extensions beyond those already granted.
President Bernardo Arévalo's reformist government faces an entrenched conflict with the Attorney General's office and a fragmented Congress, limiting its anti-corruption agenda. US and UK guidance cite corruption, weak rule of law, crime and social conflicts over extractive projects. Oil production is small, mostly from the Petén basin, and declining. Guatemala relies on imported fuels, with hydropower and bunker fuel important for generation.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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