7.500
%
Neutral
96
mm boe
0
%
President Nasry Asfura took office in January 2026 after a disputed election, with a more business-friendly agenda than his predecessor. There is no hydrocarbon production. Outlook maintained because there is no hydrocarbon exposure. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 7.5%.
October 10, 2026
Americas - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Central America, bordering the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Fonseca (North Pacific Ocean), between Guatemala and Nicaragua.
-
No active upstream regime. Exploration is governed by the Hydrocarbons Law (Decree 194-84), under which the State awards exploration and exploitation contracts, but the only significant recent award, BG Group's offshore Mosquitia licence (2013), was relinquished without drilling a commercial discovery. A new entrant would negotiate terms case by case, with corporate income tax (25% plus a solidarity contribution) applying.
Nasry Asfura of the National Party was declared winner of the closely contested November 2025 election after a disputed count, marking a shift from Xiomara Castro's leftist government. US and UK guidance cite high crime, corruption and legal uncertainty, including Honduras's withdrawal from ICSID in 2024 and the large arbitration claim by Próspera over the repeal of the ZEDE regime. There is no hydrocarbon production; the heavily indebted state utility, ENEE, remains a key risk for power investors.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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