6.500
%
Neutral
31
mm boe
62
%
Italy is a frustrating jurisdiction: good infrastructure, stable pricing and growing demand are offset by a rising tax take and a shambolic licensing and permitting regime. The Rockhopper Ombrina Mare award, which Italy has sought to annul, continues to undermine confidence in the rule of law, although the government has eased some restrictions on gas production. Outlook maintained because permitting and legal concerns persist. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 6.5%.
October 7, 2026
Europe - Mediterranean
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Europe, a peninsula extending into the central Mediterranean Sea, northeast of Tunisia.
Concession
Italy operates a relatively simple Concession fiscal regime, with royalty and corporate income tax payable, that is made complicated by the lack of a uniform licencing approach across regions and segments (onshore and offshore). Licence terms, therefore, are deemed to be bespoke, within a wide framework.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition has delivered unusual political stability. US and UK guidance cite a large market, but note slow courts, bureaucracy, high public debt and the expansive 'golden power' FDI screening regime. Italy has diversified away from Russian gas via Algeria, Azerbaijan (TAP) and new FSRUs at Piombino and Ravenna. It has eased restrictions on domestic gas output, legislated a framework for a return to nuclear, and supports Eni's international expansion through the Mattei Plan for Africa.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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