3.125
%
Neutral
79
mm boe
0
%
Mongolia is almost entirely dependent on imported petroleum products. To reduce this dependence, it is developing a domestic refinery and revising its legal framework to attract foreign investors, but frequent changes of government in 2025 and resource nationalism remain risks. Outlook maintained because development plans are offset by political instability. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 3.125%.
October 7, 2026
Asia - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Northern Asia, between China and Russia.
PSC/PSA
The Petroleum Law distinguishes between two main categories of petroleum products, being: (i) "oil" and (ii) "unconventional oil". Oil refers to crude oil and natural gas in addition to refined petroleum, whereas unconventional oil refers to oil sands and shale. As a welcome departure from the previous regime, the new Petroleum Law identifies just three types of petroleum-related activities: (i) research, (ii) exploration, and (iii) extraction. Exploration and extraction activities for oil and unconventional oil are subject to licensing procedures under the Petroleum Law, whilst other activities, such as research and pet storage and transportation, are subject to a simplified permission procedure. The Ministry of Mining and the Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (PAM) are the two primary regulators for the petroleum sector. The Ministry of Mining is responsible for policy issues, the issuance of licenses and organizing tenders for exploration sites. PAM is the main implementing authority responsible for matters such as concluding production sharing agreements, approval of annual plans, and fee collection.
Mongolia saw repeated changes of prime minister in 2025 amid anti-corruption protests, testing its coalition politics. US and UK guidance cite policy instability, resource nationalism, disputes over Oyu Tolgoi with Rio Tinto, and heavy dependence on coal and copper exports to China. The EIA notes small oil output, mostly exported to China, while the first domestic refinery is under construction with Indian finance. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, agreed in principle in 2025, would transit Mongolia.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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