17.500
%
Negative
130
mm boe
21
%
Russia's oil and gas sector has suffered from tax changes and arbitrary licensing, but these are overshadowed by its invasion of Ukraine. Comprehensive sanctions, including on Rosneft and Lukoil, and the seizure of foreign assets make investment impossible for Western firms. Outlook maintained because the war and sanctions continue. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia raised from 15% to 17.5%.
October 8, 2026
Former Soviet Union
mm bbl
bcf
Northern Asia, bordering the Arctic Ocean, extending from Europe (the portion west of the Urals) to the North Pacific Ocean.
Concession
A concession/royalty (called MET)/tax fiscal system is the basis for nearly all upstream licences and joint ventures in Russia. Joint ventures may include Russian oil and gas companies (ROCs), and/or international oil companies (IOCs). The government participates indirectly via its ownership of Gazprom and interests in other ROCs.
Russia's war against Ukraine continues amid US-led peace talks. Comprehensive UK, EU and US sanctions (extended to Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025) make investment impossible for Western firms, and foreign-owned assets have been seized under 'temporary management'. The FCDO advises against all travel. The EIA notes that oil output is about 9 million b/d, with exports redirected to India, China and Turkey via a 'shadow fleet'. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and ports have disrupted fuel output, and Arctic LNG 2 has been constrained by sanctions.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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