7.000
%
Negative
14
mm boe
69
%
The Finch ruling (20 June 2024) was perceived as another stick with which to beat the industry. The end of new licensing, the extension of the Energy Profits Levy to 2030 and stricter consent requirements have accelerated consolidation and the exit of operators from the North Sea. Outlook maintained because government policy continues to undermine North Sea investment. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 7%.
October 7, 2026
Europe - North West
mm bbl
bcf
Western Europe, islands, including the northern one-sixth of the island of Ireland, between the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea, northwest of France.
Concession
The fiscal regime that applies in the United Kingdom (UK) to the oil and gas industry consists of a combination of corporation tax, supplementary charge, petroleum revenue tax and the Energy Profits Levy, which currently has a March 2029 sunset clause. However, this is has been replaced with the Oil and Gas Price Mechanism ("OGPM").
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government faces fiscal pressure and low approval ratings, with Reform UK leading opinion polls. Guidance describes a very low-risk, transparent market with strong rule of law, although FDI screening under the National Security and Investment Act has expanded. The EIA notes that North Sea production is in long-term decline. The government has ended new licensing, and the Energy Profits Levy has been extended to 2030, prompting consolidation and the exit of operators.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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