North Sea Graben

Commentary

The western sector is super-mature, and the end of new licensing, the Energy Profits Levy to 2030 and delayed consents for Rosebank and Jackdaw are accelerating operator exits. The Norwegian side, where activity is now concentrated, remains attractive, but the basin outlook is driven by policy in the western sector. Outlook: Negative.

Updated

October 12, 2026

Location

Description

The NSGB is dominated by an episode of late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous crustal extension, which developed a number of distinct sub basins. Virtually all significant oil and gas accumulations in the northern North Sea are believed to have been generated within certain fine-grained, organic-carbon-rich marine strata of late Jurassic and earliest Cretaceous age; the Kimmeridgian shales accumulated in oxygen-starved rift basins and may locally thicken to 3,000m.

Summary

The western side of the Basin is super-mature, with liquids output there down to about 630,000 b/d. The government is legislating to ban new exploration licences (tie-backs to existing fields excepted), retains the Energy Profits Levy until 2030 and has yet to approve Rosebank and Jackdaw, prompting continued divestment and consolidation. Norway's stable licensing regime keeps activity concentrated on the Norwegian side.