The August edition of Glenloch Energy's Oil Market Forecast ("OMF") (published on the 24th of August) sees some of this year’s optimism about an oil market recovery draining away. The world seems, once again, to be facing a surge in COVID-19 cases and a return of the travel restrictions and lockdowns that for a time this year at least, looked as if they were behind us.
A few key points:
- The IEA downgraded its oil demand estimated for 2021; other organizations held their 2021 demand estimates steady.
- The EIA made a small downward adjustment to its demand estimate for 2022; other organizations held their 2022 demand estimates steady.
- Brent and WTI spot and futures prices fell sharply on concerns about the impact of new outbreaks of COVID-19.
- The US land oil rig count jumped to 388 as of the 20th of August.
- We upgraded our estimate of 2021 US oil production, based on a higher average rig count, more natural gas liquids and higher than expected conventional production.
Access Glenloch Energy's August OMF here.