5.000
%
Neutral
54
mm boe
23
%
EGPC has improved its management of operator payments, and arrears have been reduced significantly with IMF and Gulf support, encouraging new exploration commitments. However, there is still no mechanism for automatic payment for crude lifted, and further arrears remain a risk. Outlook maintained because payment improvements are not yet structural. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 5%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - North
mm bbl
bcf
Northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Libya and the Gaza Strip, and the Red Sea north of Sudan, and includes the Asian Sinai Peninsula.
PSC/PSA
Oil and gas exploration and production companies operating in Egypt will be subject to the provisions of the Egyptian income tax law, except as otherwise provided in the concession agreement, where EGPC assumes liability for their respective payment.
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's government is stable but faces a heavy debt burden. It is supported by the 2024 IMF programme, the US$35 billion Ras El-Hekma deal with the UAE, and Gulf and EU financing, while Red Sea disruption has slashed Suez Canal revenue. US and UK guidance cite the military's role in the economy, bureaucracy and FX constraints. The EIA notes that gas output has fallen as Zohr has declined, making Egypt a net LNG importer via new FSRUs and increasingly reliant on Israeli pipeline gas (including a major 2025 supply deal). The government has been paying down arrears to IOCs to revive upstream investment.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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