10.000
%
Neutral
118
mm boe
84
%
Recent reshuffles have boosted confidence, and the NOC's first licensing round since 2007 shows support for new entrants, with output at decade highs. Militia clashes in Tripoli and the risk of blockades remain significant. Outlook maintained because licensing progress is balanced by security risk. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia raised from 5% to 10%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - North
mm bbl
bcf
Northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
The fiscal regime that applies to the petroleum industry consists of a combination of corporate income tax (CIT) and other taxes. Production sharing contracts (PSCs) between the government and contractors are the general means of regulating the industry's activities. Under the PSC regime, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) is deemed to pay taxes, and the tax computation is notional.
Libya remains divided between Abdul Hamid Dbeibah's Tripoli-based government and Khalifa Haftar's eastern administration, and deadly clashes in Tripoli in May 2025 underlined militia risk. The FCDO advises against all travel, and US and UK guidance cite insecurity, corruption, payment risk and contract instability. The EIA notes that output has recovered to around 1.3–1.4 million b/d, its highest in over a decade. The NOC launched its first licensing round since 2007 in 2025, and IOCs including Eni, BP and TotalEnergies are re-engaging, although blockades remain a recurring risk.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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