9.375
%
Uncertain
124
mm boe
0
%
Investment continues to be held back by uncertainty that any PSCs entered into may be withdrawn in future. The UN Security Council's 2025 endorsement of Morocco's autonomy plan is a step towards resolution, but the EU court rulings on trade covering the territory sustain legal risk. Outlook maintained because legal status remains contested. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia unchanged at 9.375%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - North
mm bbl
bcf
Northern Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, between Mauritania and Morocco.
PSC/PSA
Production sharing Contract ("PSC")-based fiscal regime. Signature bonuses, cost recovery ceiling and profit sharing (linked to the contractor’s rate of return (IRR)) are all negotiable, while royalty rates are fixed by government. The contractors liability for income tax is paid by the state.
Western Sahara is a disputed territory, mostly controlled by Morocco, with the Polisario Front controlling areas east of the berm. A UN Security Council resolution in October 2025 endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan as the basis for negotiations. The 2024 EU Court of Justice rulings annulling EU–Morocco trade deals covering the territory create legal and reputational risk for investors. Phosphates (Bou Craa), fisheries and renewables are the main activities, and offshore exploration remains contested.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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