6.250
%
Neutral
68
mm boe
84
%
Mexico had made great strides in opening the offshore, but the 2025 energy reforms reasserted the primacy of Pemex, and mixed contracts with Pemex are now the main entry route. The onshore remains difficult, judicial reform has raised legal risk, and the 2026 USMCA review adds uncertainty. Outlook maintained because mixed contracts provide limited access but legal and policy risks persist. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 6.25%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - North
mm bbl
bcf
North America, bordering the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, between Belize and the United States and bordering the North Pacific Ocean, between Guatemala and the United States.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
The 2025 Hydrocarbons Sector Law replaced the 2014 reform framework. Pemex holds exclusive assignments, which it can develop alone or with private partners through 'mixed development' assignments and mixed contracts, in which Pemex keeps at least a 40% participating interest, cost recovery is capped at 30% of revenue (40% by exception) and the balance is shared by participating interest after fiscal obligations. SENER may also, by exception, tender exploration and extraction contracts with terms set by the Finance Ministry. Licence, PSC and profit-sharing contracts from the 2015–18 rounds continue unchanged, and Pemex's own fields pay the Petroleum Duty for Wellbeing.
President Claudia Sheinbaum commands a strong congressional majority. The 2024 judicial reform, which introduced elected judges in 2025, and the 2026 USMCA review amid US tariff pressure are key risks. US and UK guidance cite security, corruption and regulatory uncertainty, as 2025 energy reforms reassert the primacy of Pemex and CFE while offering mixed contracts to private investors. The EIA notes that crude output is declining (about 1.6 million b/d) and Pemex is heavily indebted with state support. Woodside's Trion project and Zama are the main offshore developments, and Mexico relies on US pipeline gas for power.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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