3.750
%
Positive
1
mm boe
35
%
The Trump administration has expanded federal leasing, resumed LNG export approvals and, through the 2025 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act', protected oil & gas tax treatment while cutting clean-energy credits. Tariff volatility, including on steel used by the industry, and policy unpredictability are the main risks. Outlook maintained because federal policy strongly supports oil & gas investment. Outlook: Positive. Risk premia unchanged at 3.75%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - North
mm bbl
bcf
North America, bordering both the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean, between Canada and Mexico.
Concession
The fiscal regime that applies to the petroleum industry in the US consists of a combination of corporate income tax (CIT), severance tax and royalty payments.
President Donald Trump's second term has brought sweeping tariffs, whose IEEPA basis was challenged at the Supreme Court, and a record government shutdown in late 2025. Guidance highlights the world's largest market, but notes tariff volatility, expanded CFIUS screening and policy unpredictability. The EIA notes that the US is the world's largest oil and gas producer, at about 13.5 million b/d of crude. LNG export approvals have resumed, and the 2025 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' cut back IRA clean-energy credits.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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