6.500
%
Uncertain
4
mm boe
93
%
The federal stance has shifted materially under Mark Carney, with the emissions cap shelved, a Major Projects Office created and a 2025 agreement with Alberta on a new West Coast pipeline. LNG Canada began exports in 2025, although provincial and Indigenous consent, regulatory timelines and US tariffs remain risks. Outlook amended from Uncertain because federal policy has turned decisively towards supporting oil & gas development. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia lowered from 6.5% to 5%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - North
mm bbl
bcf
Northern North America, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean on the east, North Pacific Ocean on the west, and the Arctic Ocean on the north, north of the conterminous US.
Concession
Concession-based fiscal regime. Signature bonuses are payable and are used as the basis of awarding leases. The contractor pays royalty on both oil and gas production, and federal and provincial income taxes.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals won the April 2025 election, and the government is focused on managing tariffs imposed by the US and fast-tracking 'nation-building' projects under the Building Canada Act. US and UK guidance describe a transparent, low-risk market, although the Investment Canada Act's national-security reviews have tightened, especially for state-linked investors in critical minerals. The EIA notes record crude output, driven by the oil sands. The Trans Mountain expansion (2024) eased export bottlenecks, and LNG Canada shipped its first cargo in mid-2025. Indigenous consultation, provincial–federal friction and the proposed emissions cap remain key risks.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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