4.375
%
Positive
16
mm boe
17
%
The liberalisation of the oil & gas sector remains a key positive, and diversification through Baltic Pipe, LNG and nuclear has strengthened energy security. Cohabitation between President Nawrocki and the Tusk government and EU climate legislation are watch points. Outlook maintained because liberalisation and energy-security investment continue. Outlook: Positive. Risk premia unchanged at 4.375%.
October 7, 2026
Europe - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Central Europe, east of Germany.
Concession
Very simple concession-based fiscal regime, comprising fixed royalty and corporate income tax, together with some indirect taxes. An additional profits tax called Special tax was abolished in 2007. There is no state participation.
President Karol Nawrocki, backed by PiS, took office in August 2025, and his vetoes constrain Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition ahead of the 2027 election. US and UK guidance describe a large, fast-growing EU market, while noting rule-of-law repair, sector-specific taxes and regulatory unpredictability. The EIA notes limited domestic gas, with supply diversified via Baltic Pipe and the Świnoujście LNG terminal (with a Gdańsk FSRU planned). Poland is phasing down coal, and its first nuclear plant is being developed with Westinghouse.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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