12.500
%
Uncertain
133
mm boe
70
%
The advent of the oil sector once offered some stability, but the arrest and trial of Riek Machar threaten the 2018 peace deal, and exports via Sudan have been repeatedly disrupted by its civil war. A weak governmental structure and arrears compound the risks. Outlook amended from Uncertain because the collapse of the peace process and export disruption point clearly to deterioration. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia raised from 7.5% to 12.5%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - East
mm bbl
bcf
East-Central Africa, south of Sudan, north of Uganda and Kenya, west of Ethiopia.
PSC/PSA
The fiscal system applied in South Sudan revolves around production-sharing contracts (PSCs). The Petroleum Act 2012 introduced general petroleum regulations, including the composition of fiscal provisions. Supplementary legislation, including a model PSC, have not been developed. Under the Petroleum Act 2012, an investor is subject to production
The arrest and trial of First Vice-President Riek Machar in 2025 has threatened to unravel the 2018 peace deal, with elections nominally due in December 2026. The FCDO advises against all travel, and US and UK guidance cite conflict, corruption and arrears. The EIA notes that South Sudan depends almost entirely on oil exports through Sudan, which have been repeatedly disrupted by Sudan's civil war.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
© 2024 Oil & Gas Advisors Limited
Website by Rugby Web Design
