10.000
%
Neutral
128
mm boe
0
%
Somalia remains a difficult place to operate. While the new petroleum law clarifies the position of contractors and Turkey's TPAO is exploring offshore, al-Shabaab's territorial gains in 2025, disputes with federal member states over the 2026 elections and the FCDO's advice against all travel make the security situation a decisive drag. Outlook amended from Neutral because the deterioration in security outweighs progress on the legal framework. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 10%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - East
mm bbl
bcf
Eastern Africa, bordering the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, east of Ethiopia.
PSC/PSA
The new petroleum law (2020) provides for 10% participation by the government, a royalty of up to 20% depending on production rate (15% for gas), and 100% cost recovery. The profit share varies from 90% at R<1, to 70% at R>3; taxation is levied at 30% on profits and a further 10% on franked income out of the country. Further, the new law also provides for a sinking fund for decommissioning, which needs to be assessed quarterly.
Al-Shabaab regained territory in 2025, and disputes over moving to direct elections in 2026 have strained relations between the federal government and Puntland and Jubaland. Somaliland's push for recognition adds risk. The FCDO advises against all travel, and US and UK guidance cite extreme security risk, weak institutions and sanctions exposure. Somalia has no production; Turkey's TPAO is exploring offshore under a bilateral deal, and onshore exploration by Coastline Exploration is under way.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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