5.000
%
Neutral
100
mm boe
0
%
The country's outlook was already mixed, with interest limited to the offshore after the disappointing end of Madagascar Oil & Gas. The military takeover in October 2025 adds political uncertainty, and the transition's approach to resource contracts is not yet clear. Outlook amended from Neutral because the military takeover leaves the direction of policy unclear. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 2.5% to 5%.
October 8, 2026
Africa - East
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Africa, island in the Indian Ocean, east of Mozambique.
PSC/PSA
Relatively straight-forward Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") fiscal regime, with royalty rates and production sharing splits based on sliding scale mechanisms with production rates. Cost recovery ceilings and corporate income tax rates are fixed. There is no State participation.
President Andry Rajoelina was ousted in October 2025 after youth-led protests over water and power cuts, and a military-led transition under Colonel Michael Randrianirina has taken over. US and UK guidance cite governance weaknesses, corruption, legal uncertainty for mining (Ambatovy and QMM) and the island's vulnerability to cyclones. There is no oil production; the Tsimiroro heavy-oil and Bemolanga oil-sands resources remain undeveloped, and power shortages from the state utility, JIRAMA, are chronic.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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