5.000
%
Neutral
78
mm boe
0
%
Although the financial sector and credit market have been modernised, further institutional reform and openness are needed. The violent crackdown following the October 2025 election, regulatory unpredictability and the stalled Tanzania LNG negotiations weigh on the outlook, although EACOP construction is advancing. Outlook amended from Neutral because the post-election crackdown and stalled LNG talks have raised political and regulatory risk. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia unchanged at 5%.
October 7, 2026
Africa - East
mm bbl
bcf
Eastern Africa, bordering the Indian Ocean, between Kenya and Mozambique.
PSC/PSA
Production Sharing Contract ("PSC")-based fiscal regime. The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC") has the right to take a participating interest in any development area (at any time), subject to proportional contribution to contract expenses excluding exploration costs; TPDC interest is to be a minimum of 25% under the 2008 Model PSA.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared winner of the October 2025 election with about 98% of the vote, after the main opposition was excluded; a violent crackdown on protests followed. US and UK guidance cite regulatory unpredictability, tax disputes and local-content rules. The EIA notes domestic gas output from Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay. Construction of EACOP, which will carry Ugandan crude to Tanga, is well advanced, while the US$40 billion Tanzania LNG project remains under negotiation.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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