7.500
%
Neutral
85
mm boe
26
%
Tajikistan is an entrenched authoritarian state with minimal hydrocarbon output. Hydropower dominates, with the Rogun dam under construction. Outlook maintained because there has been no material change. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 7.5%.
October 7, 2026
Asia - Central
mm bbl
bcf
Central Asia, landlocked, west of China and south of Kyrgyzstan.
PSC/PSA
Production sharing regime. Foreign upstream investment is governed by the Law on Production Sharing Agreements alongside the Subsoil and Oil and Gas Laws, with royalty, cost recovery and profit split negotiated case by case in each agreement and the contractor liable for profit tax under the Tax Code. The main foreign-held acreage, the Bokhtar PSC in the south-west, has seen little activity, and the regime has a limited track record.
President Emomali Rahmon's authoritarian rule is entrenched, with succession expected to pass to his son. US and UK guidance cite corruption, opaque regulation, weak courts and exposure to instability in Afghanistan. Tajikistan has minimal hydrocarbon production; hydropower dominates electricity, and the Rogun dam is under construction with multilateral support.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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