Falklands Plateau

Commentary

Navitas and Rockhopper's FID on Sea Lion Phase 1 in December 2025 should act as a catalyst for the wider basin, with first oil planned for 2028. The government's possible future push for a higher take and Argentine pressure remain risks. Outlook: Positive.

Updated

October 12, 2026

Location

Description

The paleogeographic reconstruction of the Falkland Plateau transform margin in a Gondwana pre-break-up configuration has been the subject of debate for years. This is mainly due to the uncertainty in the position of the Falkland Islands microplate. The islands were an extension of the south-east coast of South Africa, being either i) part of a rigid Falkland Plateau fixed to the South American plate or ii) undergoing a vertical-axis clockwise rotation of between 80° to 120° along the transform faults generated during the initial stages of fragmentation of south-western Gondwana.

Summary

After more than two decades of delays, Navitas and Rockhopper took FID on Sea Lion Phase 1 in December 2025, targeting 170mm bbl at a peak of about 50,000 b/d, with first oil planned for 2028. Execution and financing risk remain, and Argentina's threat of sanctions against companies working in the basin is a continuing headwind.