9.000
%
Neutral
62
mm boe
52
%
The election of Milei has proved a decisive break from the failed policies of the past, and his party's strong showing in the October 2025 midterms has strengthened his mandate. The RIGI incentive regime, the easing of currency controls and record Vaca Muerta output (with new export pipelines and YPF's LNG plans) have materially improved the case for investment, although provincial politics and macroeconomic fragility remain risks. Outlook amended from Neutral because the RIGI regime and the midterm result have entrenched a pro-investment framework. Outlook: Positive. Risk premia lowered from 9% to 7.5%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - South
mm bbl
bcf
Southern South America, bordering the South Atlantic Ocean, between Chile and Uruguay.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
Royalties on the production of hydrocarbons must be paid every month to the relevant province or to the national government. The Hydrocarbons Law provides for a 12% royalty on the net price obtained from the sale of hydrocarbons produced under exploitation concessions and a 15% royalty on the net sales of hydrocarbons produced under exploration permits. Royalties can be reduced by up to 50% in tertiary production (enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery), extra heavy oil and offshore projects that, owing to their particular productivity issues and location, present especially unfavourable technical and economic characteristics.
President Javier Milei's shock-therapy programme has cut inflation sharply, restored a fiscal surplus and, with the April 2025 IMF programme, dismantled much of the 'cepo' currency-control regime; his party strengthened its position in the October 2025 midterm elections. US and UK guidance welcome the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers 30 years of tax, customs and FX stability for projects above US$200 million. However, they continue to flag a history of policy reversals, debt defaults, litigation and union militancy. The EIA highlights Vaca Muerta, one of the world's largest shale plays, which has driven record oil and gas output and a shift towards net energy exports, with new export pipelines and a planned LNG project.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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