5.000
%
Uncertain
72
mm boe
76
%
The fiscal regime was historically stable, but the Petro government's halt to new exploration contracts, tax increases and a more interventionist ANH have undermined investor confidence, and gas imports are rising as reserves decline. The 2026 elections offer the prospect of a policy reversal, but this remains to be confirmed. Outlook maintained because the direction of policy depends on the incoming government. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia raised from 1.25% to 5%.
October 8, 2026
Americas - South
mm bbl
bcf
Northern South America, bordering the Caribbean Sea and the North Pacific Ocean, between Ecuador, Panama, Venezuela.
Concession
The current Concession Contract model was introduced in 2004 and replaced the 30 year old Ecopetrol Association Contract model. The new contracts are based on a royalty system with fundamental differences from the previous Association Contract in use in Colombia. In 2018, the ANH launched the Permanent Process of Allocation of Areas, which will allow the interested companies to request areas for exploration and production of hydrocarbons continuously, eliminating the need for carrying out bidding procedures for the allocation of areas. Under this process, the interested companies will send their proposal to the ANH, which will then make public the proposal inviting third parties to participate and bid for the allocation.
Under President Gustavo Petro, security has deteriorated (including the Catatumbo crisis, ELN and dissident FARC violence, and the 2025 assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay) and US relations have broken down. The 2026 presidential election to choose his successor is therefore pivotal. US and UK guidance cite tax increases, regulatory unpredictability and security threats to infrastructure. The EIA notes that the government's refusal to award new exploration contracts has pushed falling gas reserves towards LNG imports, although Ecopetrol/Petrobras's offshore Sirius discovery offers long-term supply.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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