12.500
%
Neutral
120
mm boe
90
%
The arrest of Maduro provides hope that democracy will return. We have raised our outlook to Neutral, but will keep a watching brief before revisiting the risk premia (currently 12.5%), given degraded PDVSA infrastructure and the need for sanctions relief and legal reform. Outlook maintained because we are awaiting evidence of a durable transition before moving further. Outlook: Neutral. Risk premia unchanged at 12.5%.
October 7, 2026
Americas - South
mm bbl
bcf
Northern South America, bordering the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean, between Colombia and Guyana.
Multiple (PSC/Concession)
The January 2026 amendment to the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, the largest change since the 1976 nationalisation, opened two routes for private capital: minority stakes in Mixed Companies, where the State still holds over 50% but partners gain operating, marketing and banking rights; and new upstream contracts with state-owned companies, under which private operators domiciled in Venezuela run fields at their own risk and keep a share of production. The royalty and tax provisions took effect on 3 April 2026: a royalty of up to 30% (reducible for uneconomic projects) and a new Integrated Hydrocarbons Tax of up to 15% of gross revenue, with exemptions from other levies. Arbitration is now available and the US has eased some sanctions, but investors will want evidence of contract stability and clarity on executive discretion.
Venezuela's situation has been highly volatile since the US military build-up in the Caribbean in late 2025, including strikes on vessels and a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers, and developments in 2026 should be checked against the latest guidance. The FCDO advises against all travel, and US and UK guidance cite sanctions, expropriation history, arbitrary detention and the lack of rule of law. The EIA notes the world's largest proven oil reserves but output of only about 0.9–1 million b/d, with Chevron operating under restricted US licences and PDVSA's infrastructure badly degraded.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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