6.250
%
Uncertain
102
mm boe
1
%
While initially receptive to external investment, the government hampered progress over tax and access to exports. More recent activity, including the Leviathan expansion and the large gas export deal with Egypt in 2025, suggests acceptance that the risks taken by industry must be rewarded, but regional conflict and the October 2026 election keep risk elevated. Outlook maintained because export progress is offset by conflict and political risk. Outlook: Uncertain. Risk premia unchanged at 6.25%.
October 7, 2026
Middle East
mm bbl
bcf
Middle East, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Egypt and Lebanon.
Concession
Israel has an income tax regime that is applicable across all industries. However, oil & gas activities are also subject to an additional windfall tax.
The Gaza war, which began in October 2023, moved to a US-brokered ceasefire in October 2025, following the June 2025 war with Iran; elections are due by late October 2026, and political polarisation remains high. The FCDO advises against travel to parts of the country, and US and UK guidance cite security risk, judicial-reform tensions and reputational/ESG exposure, alongside a world-class tech sector. The EIA notes that the Leviathan, Tamar and Karish gas fields make Israel a gas exporter to Egypt and Jordan, and a major long-term supply deal with Egypt was signed in 2025.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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