20.000
%
Neutral
132
mm boe
50
%
The civil war has halted external O&G investment, and Houthi attacks on shipping and on export terminals, which have stopped exports since 2022, have exacerbated the problems. While a weakened Iran may reduce support for the Houthis, our risk premia remains 20% and no investment is currently possible. Outlook amended from Neutral because exports remain halted and the conflict is unresolved. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 20%.
October 7, 2026
Middle East
mm bbl
bcf
Middle East, bordering the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, between Oman and Saudi Arabia.
PSC/PSA
Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") based fiscal regime. The Yemen Oil Company ("YOC") has the right to take a carried equity interest of between 5% and 25% upon a commercial discovery. Production rates determine royalty and production-sharing splits. Cost recovery ceilings are variable, and a range of bonuses, rentals, and fees are payable.
Yemen remains divided between the Houthis in the north and the internationally recognised government in the south. US strikes in 2025 and Israeli strikes followed Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel. The FCDO advises against all travel, and investment is effectively impossible. The EIA notes that oil exports from government-held areas have been halted since Houthi drone attacks on export terminals in late 2022, and Yemen LNG at Balhaf has been shut since 2015.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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