20.000
%
Negative
246
mm boe
0
%
The Taliban's assumption of power has left Afghanistan a pariah state, with no meaningful recognition, comprehensive sanctions exposure and a collapsed banking system. Limited Chinese interest in the Amu Darya basin aside, there is no realistic route for Western capital into the hydrocarbon sector. Outlook maintained because governance, sanctions and security show no sign of improvement. Outlook: Negative. Risk premia unchanged at 20%.
October 7, 2026
Middle East
mm bbl
bcf
Southern Asia, north and west of Pakistan, east of Iran.
Concession
Although embryonic, the tax code reflects the need to compete internationally for investment.
Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the de facto authorities have remained largely unrecognised internationally (Russia became the first state to recognise them formally, in July 2025), and the economy depends heavily on shrinking humanitarian aid. The FCDO advises against all travel, and UK and US guidance highlight exposure to sanctions, the absence of rule of law, disconnection from the international banking system and severe restrictions on women's employment. Hydrocarbon activity is minimal, limited to a small Amu Darya basin development awarded to a Chinese company in 2023. The country is effectively uninvestable for Western operators.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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