5.000
%
Positive
42
mm boe
94
%
While Turkey remains politically volatile, as shown by the jailing of Ekrem İmamoğlu in 2025, the operating and taxation regime remains stable and well managed. Growth from the Sakarya gas and Gabar oil fields and orthodox economic policy support our view. Outlook maintained because the upstream regime remains stable despite political risk. Outlook: Positive. Risk premia unchanged at 5%.
October 7, 2026
Middle East
mm bbl
bcf
Southeastern Europe and Southwestern Asia, bordering the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, between Bulgaria and Georgia, and between Greece and Syria.
Concession
Simple Concession fiscal regime, with only royalty and corporate income tax payable. Royalty rates vary with location (onshore and offshore) and production rates. Successively increasing discounts to the royalty rates apply to fields in increasing water depths, as incentives for deep-water exploration. Discounts to the royalty rates also apply for heavy oil fields, and for fields employing enhanced recovery methods.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government jailed his main rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, in March 2025, triggering protests and market turbulence, although orthodox economic policy under Mehmet Şimşek continues. US and UK guidance cite a large, diversified market and customs union with the EU, but note judicial independence concerns and inflation. The EIA notes that Turkey imports most of its energy. Production from the Sakarya gas field and Gabar oil field is growing, the Rosatom-built Akkuyu nuclear plant is nearing operation, and Turkey is positioning itself as a regional gas hub.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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