17.500
%
Neutral
123
mm boe
50
%
While sanctions remain, the recent armed action increases optimism that Iran may rid itself of its theocracy. While we upgrade our Outlook to Neutral, we will maintain our risk premia at 17.5% until the situation shows marked signs of improvement.
February 28, 2026
Middle East
mm bbl
bcf
Middle East, bordering the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, between Iraq and Pakistan.
KSA/KSC
The upstream fiscal regime currently applied in Iran is a service-type contract, referred to as an Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) which replaces the former buyback contract. After the international sanctions relating to Iran relaxed in 2016, Iran is expecting to attract international investments in its petroleum sector and is developing a new contractual framework under which international investors will be able to participate in oil and gas projects. Final terms of the new framework are not yet available.
State interference undermines every category of economic freedom measured in the Index. Corruption and deficiencies in the legal framework undermine the rule of law. The government dictates production activity and derives most of its revenue from the oil sector. The restrictive regulatory environment marginalises the private sector.
Source: ESRI, Heritage Index, HMG Foreign & Commonwealth Office, US Department of State, International Trade Administration, International Law Review, Ernst & Young, Wood Makenzie & OGA data.
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